Editor's Note:Nainish Gupta is Director of Renewable Energy Certificate Portfolios and Regulatory Compliance at POWWR, an energy software company.

Market Shifts Under Policy Changes

After years of transition toward large-scale renewable energy adoption, presidential executive orders are pausing federal investment in new wind and solar projects, slowing the growth of the clean energy supply chain and manufacturing. Leasing of federal lands for renewable energy has also been tightened, limiting the expansion of large-scale projects. In the first quarter of 2025, clean energy manufacturers canceled, closed, or scaled back nearly $8 billion in projects. Tariffs have also driven up the cost of installing solar panels, as about 75% of panels come from China.

Meanwhile, policy changes favor fossil fuel expansion: restrictions on oil, gas, and mineral extraction in Alaska have been lifted, and drilling activities have been expanded in areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. These moves open up space for development and revitalize the natural gas industry, but may pose risks to wildlife and natural habitats. Streamlining approval processes for natural gas pipelines could accelerate construction but may overlook environmental assessments.

Retail energy suppliers are already feeling the impact of increased price volatility and rising compliance costs. To navigate this new landscape, suppliers need to focus on three smart strategies: buy Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) now, leverage data and predictive analytics for smarter decisions, and expand market share.

Strategy One: Get Ahead of REC Price Increases

With fewer renewable projects on the horizon, REC supply is tightening. However, state Renewable Portfolio Standards have not disappeared and will continue to require retail suppliers to purchase a certain percentage of RECs based on their region and portfolio size. This supply-demand imbalance, coupled with increasing demand, almost certainly means prices will rise. The best way for suppliers to mitigate risk is to start purchasing RECs before expected price increases, or to set aside funds to initiate the process. Accumulating gradually can spread financial exposure and ensure inventory is available when needed, at lower prices.

Some states allow suppliers to hold RECs for months or years before they need to be retired, providing an opportunity to build inventory. Strategically purchasing RECs in advance, taking advantage of lower price periods to build positions, will also help suppliers mitigate rate increases passed on to customers—prices are expected to rise by the end of this year or early 2026.

Additionally, tracking RECs more proactively than in the past is crucial. This doesn't require a new system, but gaining insight into upcoming price trends enables suppliers to act quickly when opportunities arise. Implementing a system to manage and track RECs ensures you fully consider all available information and make informed decisions.

Strategy Two: Leverage Predictive Analytics and Real-Time Data

Policy changes will also increase price volatility in the natural gas market, making hedging decisions more critical. Suppliers should use predictive analytics and data to drive decisions. Historical trends are no longer sufficient—predictive analytics has proven valuable in anticipating volatility related to weather patterns and regulatory changes. Third-party software and managed services have modernized energy trading with real-time market data, weather forecasts, and load analysis, helping identify optimal purchasing windows and lock in natural gas prices amid volatility. Gaining access to this level of data, supplemented by tracking software, can make processes more transparent, helping suppliers make the most informed hedging decisions and efficiently adjust market positions based on real-time data.

As policy changes increase the share of natural gas generation and move away from renewables, suppliers also need to assess their portfolio composition and customer service areas. Determining the most cost-effective and reliable energy procurement strategy under current regulations may require suppliers to consider increasing diversity in energy sources or reconfiguring their portfolios. The more granular insights suppliers can leverage, the easier it becomes to optimize portfolios and lock in the best energy mix at the best prices.

Strategy Three: Expand Market Share Early

Customer-facing technology is another area of opportunity. Smart apps and smart meters that provide real-time energy consumption data can help customers manage their electricity use more effectively. Features like time-of-use pricing give customers greater transparency, allowing them to see prices clearly and adjust their consumption behavior accordingly to lower energy costs. This is especially important given expectations of rate increases as REC price changes and compliance costs may be reflected in customer bills. These technologies provide customers with valuable insights into their usage habits and put some control in their hands to make adjustments themselves. New products that improve customer experience have staying power beyond future policy or market changes, helping ensure suppliers retain their customer base.

As compliance and procurement costs rise, long-term customer contracts can provide stability. One proven approach is entering into power purchase agreements with large, stable electricity consumers such as data centers. Major tech companies like Microsoft and Meta are investing heavily in large-scale data centers to meet the rapidly growing demand for AI development. While some retail suppliers may have diversified customer bases across residential and commercial sectors, shifting target customers toward large commercial tech users can provide good balance and reduce risk. These customers have predictable around-the-clock demand. Agreements with large users offer multi-year fixed or indexed pricing, providing suppliers with stable load that can be hedged and revenue that can be planned. With these long-term PPAs, this market share can be secured for years regardless of federal regulatory uncertainty.

Building Long-Term Resilience

Although some current federal orders may be reversed under future administrations, these shifts will take years to fully materialize. Restarting closed coal or nuclear plants requires time and capital, and in many cases, the talent has already left the workforce. Restarted plants will take years to meet current standards and ramp up fully.

Even if clean energy incentives return in a few years, changes in supply chains, project pipelines, and market confidence will take years to catch up. The impact on energy infrastructure and investment will not be reversed overnight. Actions suppliers take now need to build long-term resilience that can weather ongoing volatility. Investing in technology that gives suppliers deeper market insight, clearer decision-making data, and transparency for customers is a smart strategy regardless of federal policy changes.